Bioeconomic prospecting: water, biodiversity, ecosystem services for GIRD. Paso Hondo Basin, Guatemala

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: bioeconomically prospect water, biodiversity and ecosystem services (AB&SE) to specify scenarios with governance in Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management (GIRD) for the Paso Hondo basin, Santa Rosa, Guatemala. METHOD: 4-phase mixed approach: i.) bioeconomic characterization; ii.) with the CPM tools, prioritization of indicators and with the PERT, probabilistic calculation of compliance with the 2030 Agenda Goals; iii.) based on the central limit theorem, the Marxist scheme of social-economic formation and the application of the Cardano Vieta formula, bioeconomic indices were determined and, iv.) within the framework of government agreement No. 19-2021, the Comprehensive Basin Management Plan (PMIC) for GIRD governance. With the contingent valuation method (MVC) of the Wellbeing Economy, the required investment amount was established. RESULTS: a.) hydromorphometric and bioeconomic coefficients that show preeminence of flood risk (90%). b.) probability of meeting goals, highlighting SDG 1, “Eliminate Poverty” (economic component), which is impossible to meet and affects the indices: c.1) exploitation (80%); c.2) resilience (70%); c.3) bioeconomic utility (-10%); c.4) entropic variation (110%) and c.5) non-sustainability (0.55). Resulting in a dystopian scenario in which only 4 of the 377 population centers achieve AB&SE sustainability by 2030. d.) PMIC with an investment of US $38 million. CONCLUSIONS: implement GIRD governance policies-actions and sustainable development. Emphasizing a comprehensive approach to poverty, inequality and AB&SE management that allows human well-being and its sustainability.